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30 set 2020
The Biden-Trump debate ended in a draw in my opinion.
But Trump desperately needed a decisive win to close the gap of several percentage points indicated by the polls (if you believe the polls). As time passed and the exchanges became more vitriolic instead of firing shots at his opponent on Obamagate, the influence of AOC and the sanderistas, the Green New Deal, the irresponsible fiscal plan, etc. Trump became increasingly obnoxious and petulant.
If Trump had highlighted the scandal of Hunter Biden paid 50,000 dollars a month for a synecure in Ukraine during one of the two-minute slots he would have dealt a severe blow to the Democratic candidate. On the contrary, in the vicious dog fight he continually triggered, the power of the argument was lost.
Moreover for months Trump had been insinuating (not without reason) that Biden is suffering a mental decline and is stuffed with drugs. Instead old Joe proved pugnacious and well alert. He did not commit any major mistakes and therefore his lead in the polls would hardly be dented by his performance yesterday night.
The political battle will move to the Senate where the hearings on the confirmation of Amy Coney Barret to the Supreme Court will reach new hights of brutality.
28 set 2020
I fronti dei conflitti insanabili: M5S, Atlantia, Libia e Thailandia
Nel Mo-vi-mento 5 Stelle la disfatta alle elezioni regionali ha fatto deflagrare una guerra tra bande (Fico dixit) dando la stura ad odi feroci che covano da sempre tra i miracolati da Casaleggio.
La perdita di consensi si somma per i grillini a pubbliche umiliazioni. Ad esempio i Benetton continuano ad essere padroni di Autostrade mentre Conte e Di Maio avevano annunciato urbi et orbi che avevano vinto il braccio di ferro con i titolari della concessione pubblica. Invece i Benetton hanno sbeffeggiato i novelli Toto' e Peppino e per mollare la preda pretendono di essere pagati a peso d'oro. Subito dopo l'accordo farlocco di due mesi fa, sbandierato come una vittoria del governo giallorosso e del M5S in particolare,).
Spostando l'attenzione al resto del mondo, in Thailandia spirano venti repubblicani: l'epidemia ha messo in ginocchio il turismo e il malcontento si scarica su un Re che vive per lo piu' in Germania e ostenta una ricchezza tra le maggiori del mondo. Salta all'occhio una flotta di 38 jet privati.
Invece sulla Libia sembra che spirino venti di pace dopo quasi 10 anni di guerra civile, in seguito all'intervento della Turchia, dove invece infuriano venti di recessione economica.
27 set 2020
USA: La Corte (della Discordia) Suprema
La morte di Ruth Bader Ginsburg, giudice della Corte Suprema, icona femminista e progressista, ha aperto un nuovo fronte incandescente nella campagna elettorale piu' virulenta degli ultimi decenni.
Trump vuole nominare un sostituto al piu' presto per almeno tre motivi:
1) Imprimere una svolta conservatrice ad un organo che spesso ha un ruolo piu' influente del Parlamento in decisioni epocali, dall'aborto alla sanità pubblica, passando per i matrimoni gay.
2) Galvanizzare la propria base elettorale che considera la Corte Suprema un covo di "progressisti" decisi a smantellare i valori fondativi dell'America attraverso interpretazioni speciose della Costituzione.
3) Assicurarsi che la Corte Suprema non gli sia ostile nel caso (abbastanza probabile) che le elezioni siano contestate, come nel 2000, e quindi la decisione finale finisca sui banchi dei giudici costituzionali.
La scelta di Amy Coney Barret galvanizza la base elettorale di Trump, ma le sue posizioni antiabortiste rischiano di alienare l'elettorato femminile.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/09/19/what-you-need-to-know-about-amy-coney-barrett-trumps-leading-supreme-court-pick/#5f910f972161
24 set 2020
The Sordid Mystique of Conspiracy Theories
The advent of social networks has given a powerful impetus to the spread of conspiracy theories. The political debate in Italy, has been dominated by an idiotic propaganda against the European Union and the euro. Likewise social media are full of lies on the plan to substitute the white Italian population with African or Muslim illegal immigrants orchestrated and financed by Soros. In the US the conspiracy theory cottage industry is always working 24/7 and from the botched narrative over John Kennedy's assassination to Qanon has grown in size and sophisitcation.
But who takes seriously these theories? Who are the gullible prone to give credit to such garbage? What psychological mechanisms are triggered in labile minds? We talk about it with Alberto Forchielli in this new episode of Inglorious Globastards, inspired by a research conducted at the University of Chicago by Eric Oliver and Thomas Wood
Individuals who reject a rational approach are those who rely mainly on their intuition which, however, in the face of epochal crises tends to generate a pathological state of obsessive anxiety. This often generates a radicalization of the electorate, especially the segment of less educated, rural folks which produced the Trump, Boris Johnson, Orbans, Grillo, Salvini, Le Pen and even the Putins.
Moreover, it is precisely during times of crisis that conspiracy theories spread more easily because people's apprehension for the immediate future explodes. As a result many "intuitionists" search for simplistic explanations that point fingers at unspecified "dark powers" which conspire to subjugate the unaware population. Such psychological mechanisms are not new though. Fascism in Italy also fed on the "betrayed victory" conspiracy, while Nazism spread the hoax that the defeat in World War I was caused by an unspecified "backstabbing" of valiant Germans soldiers by the sleaze Jew minority living within and outside the borders of the Second Reich. The researchers conclude that no one is immune to the conspiracy virus. And many are asymptomatic.
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